Tuesday, June 9, 2015

The 2016 Republican Nomination Will be a Watershed Moment

So here's the current crop of GOP presidential hopefuls, both declared and undeclared.

Ben Carson
Lindsey Graham
Bob Ehrlich
Marco Rubio
Bobby Jindal
Mike Huckabee 
Carly Fiorina
Peter King
Chris Christie
Rand Paul
George Pataki
Rick Perry
Jeb Bush
Rick Santorum
Jim Gilmore
Scott Walker
John Kasich
Ted Cruz


Honestly I don't think any of them can win the general election, but of course one of them will win the GOP nomination and whoever that is will have a huge impact on how the 2016 election plays out.  It will determine the tone of the general campaign, the issues that get major media play and quite possibly the future direction of the party over the next 20+ years.  So first off, most of these candidates are jokes.  They are running either for free PR, vanity, money, or out of pure delusions.   I'm talking about your trumps, kings, jindals and patakis.  Fiorina is a special case who just might be running at the request of the Republican establishment to prove that women are important in the GOP too.  Plus vanity.  Then there are some long shot candidates who might just luck their way into the nomination on a fluke if the top tier all implode somehow.  That's your perry's, paul's and kasich's.  christie would have been on that list if not for his vast array of ongoing scandals and plummeting popularity in NJ.  



But there's really only about 3 top tier candidates who have a decent chance: Walker, Bush and some say Rubio.  Personally I don't think Rubio has a chance either.  There are a variety of reasons Walker and Bush are the only serious contenders right now, but mostly it's that all the other candidates are seriously flawed in various ways.  For Paul holds too many libertarian-type views that don't match party orthodoxy plus he's got personal baggage.  Cruz is hated by his own party for being a dick, is way to far to the right and he looks like frank burns from M.A.S.H.  Perry's an idiot, Jindal is a 15 years old, Carson barely has a campaign staff etc. etc.  And of course Bush and Walker are raising money hand over fist from the big, billionaire type donors.  Which means they also have the support of the GOP establishment figures in government and media circles.  Which means, just like every 4 years, one of them will be the GOP candidate.



At this point my money is on Walker.  Jeb has to much baggage from his brother, and won't be able to attack Clinton on lots of issues where Walker can hit her.  And despite his milquetoast appearance, Walker is a rabid right-winger.  Which means the GOP base will finally get their true believer nominee after bitterly complaining about McCain and Romney as moderate wimps who wouldn't deliver the real conservative message America craved.  There is widespread belief among the base that excessive moderation is what lost them the presidency in 2008 and 2012 (though I'm pretty sure they're very wrong about that).


And that's a big reason why this nomination and general election will be so critical in shaping the GOP going forward.  The base and establishment will finally see what happens when you have a true, hard core conservative as your standard bearer in a presidential election year.  If Walker wins and the GOP does well in the House and Senate, it will be a huge vindication for the right and give them massively increased influence in the party.  And they'll likely control the white house, possibly both houses of congress and the supreme court (with 2 or more seats being appointed during a Walker presidency).  If, as I think far more likely, Walker loses  and loses pretty badly that will be a blow to the far right.  It will hopefully at least halt the party's continued drift towards extremism and likely force it back to the left a bit.  The GOP is already looking at terrible long term demographic trends, with it's older, white base shrinking and more and more people identifying as liberal on social issues.  A third straight presidential loss should be a wake-up call that they can't win nationally unless they enact a major overhaul of they policies.  Silly PR buzzwords like "minority outreach" and "compassionate conservatism" won't cut it.


Thursday, May 14, 2015

Serial Podcast Subreddit Survey Results



So here are the results of a survey I put up for serial fans on https://www.reddit.com/r/serialpodcast/ .  Because it was a free account, I can't export the raw data into excel for analysis and I haven't had time to do in manually.  And of course all of this has to be taken with the caveat that it is a self selected group of poll takers from a small group and totally non-random.  But some quick thinks that jumped out at me:


1) Gender disparity.  65% female to 35% male.  I'm guessing that's far off general reddit breakdown, but maybe reflects the Serial audience demographic.  In any case, it's a big difference which I can't explain.

2) Age skewed a a lttle younger than I would have guessed, but that may be more reflective of reddit and serial's general listening audience.

3) Super white dominated at 81%.

4) Less than 50% of repondents believe Adnan's guilty.  The rest believe innocent of undecided.  This is very different from my impression from reading comments.  And that indicate to me that the guilters are just far more outspoken and strident.  They attack others, downvote and likely push people to stop commenting if they believe Adnan might not be guilty.

5) If you look at who thinks the State met the beyond a reasonable doubt burden of proof, the difference is even more clear.  Only 34% thinkg the State proved their case vs 66% who thing it did not.

I'll update when I have time to manually export the data to excel.






Are you male or female?

  • Answered: 117 
  • Skipped: 0
FemaleMale
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Female
64.96%
76
Male
35.04%
41
Total117

What is your age?

  • Answered: 116 
  • Skipped: 1
17 or younger18-2021-2930-3940-4950-5960 or older
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
17 or younger
1.72%
2
18-20
3.45%
4
21-29
24.14%
28
30-39
37.93%
44
40-49
18.10%
21
50-59
9.48%
11
60 or older
5.17%
6
Total116

In what country do you currently reside?

  • Answered: 83 
  • Skipped: 34
United States
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
United States
100.00%
83
Total83

What is the highest level of school you have completed or the highest degree you have received?

  • Answered: 116 
  • Skipped: 1
Less than high
school degree
High school
degree or...
Some college
but no degree
Associate
degree
Bachelor degreeGraduate degree
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Less than high school degree
0.86%
1
High school degree or equivalent (e.g., GED)
3.45%
4
Some college but no degree
6.90%
8
Associate degree
5.17%
6
Bachelor degree
36.21%
42
Graduate degree
47.41%
55
Total116

Are you White, Black or African-American, American Indian or Alaskan Native, Asian, Native Hawaiian or other Pacific islander, or some other race?

  • Answered: 111 
  • Skipped: 6
White
Black or
African-Amer...
American
Indian or...
Asian
Native
Hawaiian or...
From multiple
races
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
White
81.08%
90
Black or African-American
3.60%
4
American Indian or Alaskan Native
0.00%
0
Asian
10.81%
12
Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander
0.00%
0
From multiple races
4.50%
5
Total111

US Region

  • Answered: 80 
  • Skipped: 37
New EnglandMiddle Atlantic
East North
Central
West North
Central
South Atlantic
East South
Central
West South
Central
MountainPacific
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
New England
5.00%
4
Middle Atlantic
18.75%
15
East North Central
20.00%
16
West North Central
3.75%
3
South Atlantic
11.25%
9
East South Central
7.50%
6
West South Central
6.25%
5
Mountain
6.25%
5
Pacific
21.25%
17
Total80

Which of the following best describes the field in which you received your highest degree?

  • Answered: 71 
  • Skipped: 46
MathematicsScienceHealthcareMedicineComputingEngineeringTechnologyBusiness
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Mathematics
5.63%
4
Science
28.17%
20
Healthcare
9.86%
7
Medicine
8.45%
6
Computing
5.63%
4
Engineering
7.04%
5
Technology
5.63%
4
Business
29.58%
21
Total71

Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or something else?

  • Answered: 113 
  • Skipped: 4
RepublicanDemocratIndependentSomething else
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Republican
5.31%
6
Democrat
56.64%
64
Independent
16.81%
19
Something else
21.24%
24
Total113

Do you believe the State met the burden of proof beyond a reasonable doubt in its case against Adnan Syed?

  • Answered: 117 
  • Skipped: 0
YesNo
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Yes
34.19%
40
No
65.81%
77
Total117

Do you believe Adnan Syed is guilty?

  • Answered: 117 
  • Skipped: 0
Yes or Lean YesNo or Lean NoUndecided
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Yes or Lean Yes
48.72%
57
No or Lean No
29.06%
34
Undecided
22.22%
26
Total117